Conference Break

Climate change

When considering the futures of farming, climate change is an important factor to consider. For example, what types of crops will be supported by future climates? How will growing regions shift, and will farmers be able to adapt to these shifts?

The US Climate Change Program released a report titled, "The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity," with findings that hold implications for agriculture, including a 10 to 14-day increase in temperate latitudes' growing season over the past 19 years, warmer summers that will increase livestock mortality and also decrease dairy production, and a higher rate of susceptibility to climate change for horticultural crops as opposed to grain and oilseed crops.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has several resources related to climate change and agriculture, particularly Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007. Chapter 5 of this group's report "Food, fibre and forest products" notes the importance of considering socio-economic developments in concert with climate change predictions when considering future food availability. Page 302 of Chapter 5 contains a generalized map of the world with predicted increases and decreases in food production by 2050, not accounting for adaption.

An End of Agriculture?

In a February 4, 2009, article in the Los Angeles Times, Secretary of Energy Steven Chu noted that climate change could have dramatic impacts on agriculture in the United States, especially California. Secretary Chi is quoted as saying, "We're looking at a scenario where there's no more agriculture in California." As temperatures increase, the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains will continue to decline and disappear, and this will greatly reduce water supplies for California agriculture. Substantial impacts could be felt within the end of this century. Senator James Inhofe, a Republican from Oklahoma and the highest ranking Republican on the Environment and Public Works Committee did not see the situation as dire. The newspaper article quotes a statement released by Senator Imhofe, "I am hopeful Secretary Chu will take note of the real-world data, new studies and the growing chorus of international scientists that question his climate claims," also adding, "Computer model predictions of the year 2100 are simply not evidence of a looming climate catastrophe." See the full article at "California farms, vineyards in peril from warming, U.S. energy secretary warns"

"In the simplest terms, the production of food and other agricultural products will disappear from the United States because it will become unprofitable to tie up resources in farming and ranching. This means we will voluntarily leave agriculture behind in favor of better opportunities - a process that has been going on since American history began" (p. 1). "Thus, America, the most efficient producer of food in the world today is going out of business because it cannot compete with the upstarts in the market, many of whom it helped get going. American has moved far enough up the Food Chain that now our agricultural industry is being 'eaten up'" (p. 21). Taken from the book, The End of Agriculture in the American Portfolio by Steven C. Blank.